On the Revision of Russian Harvest Statistics of the Late 19th Century

Abstract

The article scrutinizes the reliability of harvest statistics of the Central Statistical Committee of the Ministry of Internal Affairs. The author shows that a crop accounting reform conducted in 1893 led to a formal increase in crop yields in 50 provinces of European Russia by at least 19 %. In some chernozem and Volga provinces, the jump in productivity in 1893–1896 compared to 1887–1890 exceeded 40 %. In the Ekaterinoslav province, the jump was 42 %, in Kherson – 43 %, Kazan – 51 %, Ufa – 54 %, Vyatka – 55 %, Samara – 78 %. Climatic fluctuations cannot explain such a sharp increase in the average yield. Thus, the comparison of data on grain production in the 1880s with data from the beginning of the 20th century, carried out in the works of some historians, turns out to be incorrect. As is known, two trends in historiography assess the dynamics of the level of consumption in Russia in the late 19th – early 20th century in different ways. “Pessimists” talk about the growth of agrarian overpopulation and peasant shortage of land, which led to a decrease in per capita consumption and an increase in discontent among the masses. “Optimists” take the opposite position and argue that the production growth outpaced the population growth. Accounting for the proposed adjustment of 19 % leads to the opposite conclusion. Grain production per capita was declining, and the population’s standard of living was falling. From this perspective, the ideas about Russia’s economic development in the second half of the 19th century that existed until now require revision, considering new circumstances. In this case, the “pessimistic” point of view receives an additional argument.